Earlier this week, the Forex Blog speculated that the tide was turning on the Euro, which  had retreated from the $1.60 threshold. Sure enough, the month of April saw the best monthly performance by the Dollar in over two years. The sudden about-face by the Dollar stems from changes in interest rate expectations. Only a couple weeks ago, the consensus among investors was that the Fed would cut rates further at its next meeting; the only point of uncertainty was whether rates would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.

As of today, however, there is only a 25% chance that the Fed will cut rates at all, if you go by futures prices. Regarding the Euro, investors are no longer so sure that the ECB will hike rates in response to surging inflation. In short, the new consensus is that the US/EU interest rate differential has stabilized. Then there is the economic picture; investors have "chosen" to be pleasantly surprised by the most recent economic data. While the economic downturn still seems inevitable, it may not be as severe as investors had previously feared. Reuters reports:

In contrast to slightly stronger U.S. data, the Ifo German business sentiment index this week showed the biggest monthly fall since September 2001.

Read More: Dollar heads for best month in 2-1/2 years

The anecdotal evidence for surging retail interest in forex is cropping up everywhere. Moreover, investors are no longer even limiting themselves to the spot market, utilizing derivatives to speculate on future exchange rates. In the UK, for example, 10% of investors intending to purchase real estate in the EU are utilizing forward agreements to hedge their exposure to the Euro, which has risen 10% against the Pound since the beginning of 2008. Evidently, prospective home buyers are hoping that the Euro returns to 2007 levels, which would significantly lower the cost of buying property there. However, if the Euro continues to appreciate, such investors could end up losing more than they bargained for. Homes Worldwide reports:

Even the movement in the markets over a couple of days can make the difference between owning a property and no longer being able to afford it.

Read More: Brits Gambling On Volatile Currency Markets

2008 has witnessed a rapid appreciation in the Euro, which recently breached the psychologically important $1.60 barrier. Last week, however, the Dollar dramatically reversed course, leading many traders to speculate that the Euro's best days may be temporarily behind it. There are two ideas underlying this theory. First, the Federal Reserve Bank is probably near the end of its tightening cycle, while the ECB has yet to begin. In addition, recent economic data suggests that the Euro-zone economy, which has appeared recession-proof in spite of the credit crisis, may soon falter. The best-case scenario, according to Dollar bulls, would be a loosening of monetary policy in the EU simultaneous with tightening in the US. If such a scenario were to obtain, it would bridge the interest rate differential between the two economies, which many believe is behind the weakness in the Dollar. The Wall Street Journal reports:

If bad news out of Europe starts to accumulate and the Fed stands pat, the dollar’s slide could taper off.

Read More: An Endgame for the Euro?

The word "parity" is becoming a mainstay of traders in the forex markets.  In 2007, it applied to the Canadian Dollar, which had rallied 70% over the course of five years to reach the mythical 1:1 level against the USD.  This year, it is the Australian Dollar that is threatening to surpass the Dollar in value. The AUD has always benefited from general USD weakness, but now the focus is shifting to the AUD, itself. The most recent Australian price data suggests that inflation in Australia remains problematic, which could force its Central Bank to raise the benchmark lending rate to 7.5%.  In addition, high commodity prices and consequently strong exports should provide demand for the currency. As always, analysts are divided over the likelihood of parity, but that hasn't stopped them from bandying the term about. The Australian Age reports:

Parity was never a "ridiculous suggestion." "But it's probably a bit tougher going because the Australian economy is slowing," says one analyst. "Then again, if you saw a reacceleration in growth, that might be a different story."

Read More: Our dollar on a roll...

The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points, to 3.0%.  The move was widely expected by analysts, although some of them had forecast only a .25% cut. Last week, economic data confirmed a mild rate of inflation in Canada, giving the BOC a green light to ease monetary policy without having to worry about the effect on prices.  Despite commodity prices that remain at stratospheric levels, Canada's economy is sagging, due to the subprime crisis unfolding across the border. Some analysts have analogized Canada's situation to the dilemma facing the European Central Bank, which is reluctant to cut interest rates for fear of stoking the fires of inflation. As a result, the Euro has surged 8.5% against the Dollar in the year-to-date, while the Canadian Dollar has fallen. If the BOC opts to cut rates further, the Dollar could retake some of the ground it lost last year. Marketwatch reports:

Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar is likely to hold support around par, gradually firming back toward C$1.03 ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30.

Read More: Canada poised to cut after benign inflation data

In the year-to-date, the Vietnamese Dong has fallen by .7%.  That may not seem like much, but since the Dong/Dollar exchange rate is approximately 16,000 to 1, every .1% is meaningful. Unfortunately for Vietnam, analysts are predicting that the Dong will fall further, due to a confluence of factors. First, the Vietnamese stock market is tanking; the 42% decline recorded thus far in 2008 makes it Asia's worst performer and unattractive for foreign investors. The second factor is inflation, which is nearing 20% and is directly eroding the value of the Dong. Finally, there are technical factors, such as rising imports and market sentiment that the Central Bank will hold down the Dong to support the export sector.  Bloomberg News reports:

"The key concerns are that inflation and excessive domestic growth have been allowed to persist. Those pressures have flipped from dong positive to dong negative.''

Read More: Dong to Drop as Inflation Deters Investors

When asked to discuss the official position of the USA with regard to its currency, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson typically invokes the "Strong Dollar Policy."  According to former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, however, this policy is a "vacuous notion."  Mr. O'Neill served as Secretary from 2001-2002, during which time he echoed the strong dollar sentiments of his forebears, without apparently ever believing that the US had any ability or intention to influence the value of the Dollar in forex markets.  The implications of Mr. O'Neill's comments are such that the rhetoric of Secretary Paulson, as well as a recent warning by the G7 nations, are both wholly empty, and the Dollar's value will continue to rise and fall as determined by the markets.  Bloomberg News reports:

O'Neill roiled currency markets when he was in office from 2001 to 2002, at one point with comments in an interview with a German newspaper that the U.S. pursued a policy of a strong economy, rather than currency.

Read More: O'Neill Says U.S. `Strong Dollar' Policy Is `Vacuous Notion'

Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) recently unveiled a product that represents a viable alternative to currency exchange trade funds. A currency ETF is "index-passive" because it is linked to an index and rises and falls in line with the value of the currency with which it is associated.  FXCM's Enhanced Dollar Index programs, however, are "actively managed" and  aim to capture all of the upside of currency movements with only some of the downside. This is achieved through sophisticated trading algorithms that combine a leveraged index approach with market timing and directional investing. To explain in more concrete terms, a leveraged investment in a Dollar ETF would yield an above-market return if the ETF appreciates, but a proportionately below-market return if the ETF loses value.  The Enhanced Dollar Index Program, in contrast, would yield the same above-market return in the first scenario but a smaller loss in the second scenario.

Read More about FXCM Enhanced Index Programs

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board [is] nearing the end of its interest rate-cutting cycle, the European Central Bank [is] likely to reduce rates before the end of the year, and things might not get much worse for the U.S. economy. That suggests the dollar may recover in the coming months, with or without official intervention.

"For the next one or two quarters, the Aussie's fundamentals will probably look very soggy. I would suggest the Aussie dollar is expensive. There has been a stunning shift back in favor of the yen," [said one analyst].